Recently, it was learned that the ex factory price of Baosteel's main varieties remained flat in October after three consecutive months of lowering the ex factory price. In the previous three months, the ex factory price of Baosteel's hot-rolled and cold-rolled mainstream products decreased by 500-610 yuan/ton
in this regard, analysts believe that although the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market has eased at present, it is difficult to say the future direction of steel prices. The negative factors in the steel market are intertwined, and there is a high probability that the steel price will weaken again in the later period
data show that China's export of 4.24 million tons of steel in August fell for two consecutive months, indicating that domestic and foreign steel demand is still weakAfter nearly a year of sharp decline, the domestic steel price has been at the lowest level in nearly three years. According to monitoring, from mid April to September 11, the price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil in Shanghai market has fallen from the highest 4360 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1000 yuan/ton Longmang Baili and Yanbian County People's government signed the "investment agreement for the innovative project of upgrading and transforming 500000 tons of titanium concentrate into titanium chloride slag"
although the steel price fell significantly in the early stage, stimulated by the good news that the national development and Reform Commission has recently approved the investment projects, the domestic steel market cannot blindly seek the comprehensive rise of the price of famous brands when making specific choices. Since September 7, the price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market has rebounded slightly for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 110 yuan/ton
it is worth noting that in the face of the rapid and strong rebound in steel prices, Baosteel and WISCO did not choose to raise prices immediately, and they chose to launch the ex factory price in October in a flat market, which also gave a shot in the arm to the steel market that had been "falling endlessly"
"WISCO's price policy is significantly ahead of schedule, which is likely to stabilize the ex factory price policy by taking advantage of the market price rise, indicating that it is cautious about the continued rebound in steel prices in the later period." Analysts pointed out that the inaction of Baosteel and WISCO policies in October will have a certain positive impact on the market
analysts stressed that at present, the ex factory prices of Baosteel and WISCO are seriously inversely linked to the market prices. If the steel prices do not rise significantly in the near future, the contract organization of steel mills will face greater pressure
demand is difficult to support
since this year, the negative factors in the steel market are intertwined, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to be significantly improved
data show that China's export of 4.24 million tons of steel in August fell for two consecutive months, indicating that domestic and foreign steel demand is still weak
in addition, "the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry is prominent, and the demand generated by government investment is difficult to strongly support the steel price." Analysts pointed out that from the current production capacity, the national crude steel production capacity has exceeded 900 million tons, and the overcapacity has exceeded 160 million tons, and the production capacity continues to increase; In addition, there are 58 blast furnaces to be built by the end of this year, with an additional capacity of 84.4 million tons
analysts bluntly said that at present, some new investment projects are still in the stage of "lip service but not practical". "Compared with previous years, the investment intensity this year is no longer difficult. Not only has the total investment decreased significantly, but its marginal utility is also decreasing."
moreover, the fundamentals of the steel market itself are not strong. The mechanism of ultrasonic vibration machining is based on the relative movement of tools and workpieces in the traditional processing process, and the driving force for the continuous rise of steel prices is insufficient. At the same time, September is the centralized repayment period for traders, and the capital chain is becoming more and more tense
analysts pointed out, "it is obviously not advisable to regard the development and Reform Commission as a lifesaver to formulate plans and policies, which is suspected of speculation. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the output is still at a relatively high level, the steel price rebound is not sustainable, and there is a high probability of weakening again in the later stage, and the order price of the leading steel mills will also hover at a low level."
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